Transfers rumours – which to believe, and which to ignore?

You never know which ones to believe. And often they’re designed solely to earn a player a large salary increase (not pointing fingers at anyone, Wayne). So with the January sales just around the corner, which pieces of speculation are to be believed, and which are about as fictional as a story told by the Apprentice’s Stuart Baggs to an unsuspecting shop owner?

Emmanuel Adebayor (From Man City to Spurs)

The first thing that strikes me about this rumour is that Adebayor clearly wants to leave Eastlands to get regular first team football. The Togolese striker has been frozen out of the Manchester City first team, and where better for him to go than Spurs? ‘Arry Redknapp isn’t one known for extensive scouting and analysis of players he brings in. And Adebayor hates Arsenal with such a passion that you could imagine him being only too happy to join his former Arsenal team mate William Gallas at White Hart Lane. However, given that City wouldn’t allow Craig Bellamy go on loan to Spurs last year, it is unlikely they would allow Adebayor to do so. City’s owners don’t seem the type to be concerned about saving money at the potential expense of a top four place.

Probability 2/10

David Luiz (Benfica to Chelsea)

A far more likely move. Luiz is an outstanding defender and it surely won’t be long until he moves abroad to one of the continent’s big clubs. He did suggest recently that he has no intention of leaving Benfica, but whether he is as determined to stay if he receives a large offer from Stamford Bridge or not is another question entirely. Luiz wouldn’t be eligible to play for the Blues in the Champions League, but given their injury problems and the exposing of their defence in the absence of John Terry and Alex, Carlo Ancelotti will be looking for a centre back. Luiz has the physique and brawn to cope well in the Premier League too, but whether Roman Abramovich has the will to pay a large sum to bring the Portuguese to Stamford Bridge or not is another question entirely.

Probability 6/10

Javier Pastore (Palermo to Barcelona)

The highly rated Argentine has made giant waves in Italy in recent seasons, and given his prodigious talent it is hard to imagine that he won’t move to a bigger club soon, though if Palermo make it into the Champions League this season that could prolong his stay at the Renzo Barbera. Pastore to his credit has said he is happy at Palermo and wants to stay there for a long time, but the club are resigned to losing him, and it seems likely they will want to cash in when he is at his most valuable. A playmaker with tremendous skill and an eye for a pass, he is the kind of player who can cut open an opposition defence with a clever through ball, and would fit in well with Pep Guardiola’s free flowing stars. With Cesc Fabregas likely to be moving to Barcelona at some point in the near future, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Pastore and Fabregas as the long term replacements for Xavi and Iniesta at the Camp Nou. This move seems more a question of ‘when’ than ‘if’.

Probability 5/10

Fernando Llorente (Athletic Bilbao to Real Madrid)

Llorente is a superb finisher and won the World Cup last summer with Spain. He has long been linked with a move away from the Basque side, with Real Madrid touted as a possible destination. Though Miguel Pardez, Real’s sporting director, said that the club weren’t in the market for a striker recently, he did confirm Real’s admiration for Llorente and hint that if they had injury problems they may come into the market for a forward. With Gonzalo Higuain out for two months with an injury and Real slipping behind Barcelona following this week’s result at the Camp Nou, it wouldn’t be out of the question for Real to move for Llorente.

Probability 7/10

Lassana Diarra (Real Madrid to Tottenham)

Diarra has more clubs than Colin Montgomerie, and is notoriously quick to change. Having perfected the art of keeping Real Madrid’s bench warm for the club’s stars, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a player who moved from Arsenal and Chelsea because of a lack of football make another move. And where better than a club with an equally trigger happy manager when it comes to transfers, Harry Redknapp? Known to be an admirer of Diarra, Tottenham have a potential vacancy for a defensive midfielder, a part of the team that has been a weakness for them recently. Though Tom Huddlestone and Wilson Palacios are excellent players, the former is not the most mobile, whilst Palacios has poor positional sense. Bringing in Diarra on loan would be a typical Redknapp move as he looks to continue Tottenham’s rapid rise through the Premiership’s hierarchy.

Probability 8/10